dimanche 17 mars 2013

La présentation de Mario Draghi sur l'état économique de l'eurozône

On lira avec profit les graphiques que Mario Draghi a présenté à l'Euro sommet du 14 Mars sur l'état économique de l'Eurozône en se reportant au post ci-dessous de FT Alphaville:

4 commentaires:

  1. Thank you for this report. I would be interested to get your thoughts about the action of the ECB to stimulate growth so far. The ECB has been reactive expanding its balance sheet to provide funds to the market in order to restore confidence; but could it do more in order to restore competitiveness?

    The eurozone has a governance problem; one currency but several budget & governance, this is hard to make it work. There is not a central authority/budget that can compensate the austerity measures that are taken locally by investing to boost the local economy; and therefore these local countries are struggling to recover; which by the way affect the economy of the entire zone.

    Resolving such a problem will take time; assuming euro members want to resolve it, which can be challenged as well.

    In the meantime could the ECB do more? We are seeing very aggressive policy from central banks around the world of which the BOJ. Any action that would lower interest rate in peripherals countries and/or the euro, may have a positive impact with regards to the eurozone competitiveness. Given the bad numbers (i.e. growth, unemployment rate etc …) I guess inflation is not an issue; so why not being more aggressive with the balance sheet?

    I am attaching an article from the WSJ that give an overview of how worrying is the situation in EU.


    Looking forward to hearing from you

    Kind regards

  2. In relation to the action taken by central banks around the globe to stimulate growth and especially the FED vs. the ECB, please find below an interesting article from the economist called “A world of cheap money - The Federal Reserve is making a better job of it than the European Central Bank”


    Kind regards

    Mark Warren

  3. Inflation doesn't seem to be an issue currently (not enough velocity of money circulation in the european economy) so that in the very short run no worries should be on that topic in Europe. And it's true that the current challenge is to both reduce structural budget deficits and give positive framework to boost growth.
    However, first, inflation is definitely not a solution as a brilliant french economist put it: "inflation is tomorrow unemployment and the day after tomorrow overwhelming indebtedness". Second, growth does not emerge with a decree (seems to be rather more intangible and difficult than that...). Third, blind, irrelevant or even harsh austerity clearly lead to drying up motivation, creativity, positive thinking and does not guarantee anything in restoring sound public accounts.
    Solutions should be then given priorities in focusing on quality (quality of credits accorded by banks, quality of products proposed by corporate to the markets), on private investments, on better functioning and understanding of the key links between banks, investors, entrepreneurs and employees, on confidence in entrepreneurs, with max limitation of moral hazard, on education, ideas and sound modern techniques and innovation of course, preventing all kind of inappropriate "rente" (french word) that jeopardize real economic growth and often create bubbles ; on limitation of currency wars that are not a profound and long term solution... returning to the first point I mention above. The bank of japan is boosting down the yen against the dollar, boosting up japanese equity markets, while when we consider the context of the FED, we remember that a lot of chinese people have yuan-dollar oriented revenues... so that it is good for japanese exportations and japanese pensioners (they are dollar invested + inflation-income indexed), but not for the japan youth right now, neither for lots of chinese people (currently complaining about the policy of Fed), nor globally : risk of further inflation perspective in Japan and in the long run feeding certainly in that case the rest of the world (ok they are fighting 20 years of deflation but it is said I guess that 70% of inflation is global imported inflation) surely creating conditions for future new asset bubbles... remaining question is to be certainly where and what... for inflation perspective in Japan, back again at point 1 above.

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