lundi 9 avril 2012

Les perspectives de la banque de financement et d’investissement selon Oliver Wyman

Oliver Wyman est un consultant spécialisé dans le benchmarking et l’analyse stratégique pour la banque d’investissement. Associé avec Morgan Stanley, Oliver Wyman fait un rapport annuel sur l’état de l’union qui est à peu près aussi fébrilement attendu que la nouvelle édition du Parker dans le Bordelais. Cette année le rapport intitulé « decision time for wholesale banks » dégage les tendances suivantes reprises de l’executive summary  de l’étude :

The basis of competitive advantage is shifting, spurred by

regulatory, competitive and economic changes. We think

the market underestimates the ramifications of four key

changes that will drive market share shifts and rationalisation.

1. A step change in unsecured funding costs makes it

harder for banks to hold some assets on balance

sheet, which are then more likely to shift to investors.

This is likely to reshape financial intermediation over the next five years

and lead to more business shifting to the bond markets

and to loan investors, particularly in Europe.

2. Financial protectionism and changes in regulators’

desire for capital and funding in subsidiaries will drive

a de-globalisation of markets. Recent initiatives by

regulators to trap even more liquidity and capital locally are

gathering pace, and need to be factored into banks’

models. Some global banks, chiefly the Europeans, will

exit geographies where they can’t compete, giving

advantage to scaled regionals and some US firms. Home

market advantages will be reinforced, pushing medium

sized and smaller banks to focus domestically. The

profitability of the US markets and the continued

importance of US dollars as the functional global currency

of trade will also furnish US firms with a strong advantage.

3. A greater proportion of economic profit will come

from the infrastructure supporting clearing, collateral

management and service delivery. The use of collateral

and the regulatory shift to centralized clearing is

accentuated by sovereign stress and the need to mitigate

risk assets. Banks will be competing with other

infrastructure providers to win these earnings streams.

Paralleling this, banks are seeking to “lock in” corporate

and retail client business by delivering more integrated


4. Distribution and operational scale will become more

important than financial leverage and trading

prowess.Scale, technology and breadth

of distribution to drive market share and efficiency will be

ever more important.

And what does this mean for the banks, the industry

structure, and winners and losers?

We think wholesale banks have the potential to earn

12-14% ROE in the next 2 years, but there will be more

distance between the winners – who could return even

more – and the losers. Banks made just 8% RoE in their

wholesale banks in 2011 and the market is assuming most will

struggle to make their cost of capital in the next 2 years. This is

in part due to further regulatory-driven drags on returns from

higher required capital ratios and other changes.

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