Oliver Wyman est un consultant spécialisé dans le benchmarking et l’analyse stratégique pour la banque d’investissement. Associé avec Morgan Stanley, Oliver Wyman fait un rapport annuel sur l’état de l’union qui est à peu près aussi fébrilement attendu que la nouvelle édition du Parker dans le Bordelais. Cette année le rapport intitulé « decision time for wholesale banks » dégage les tendances suivantes reprises de l’executive summary de l’étude :
The basis of competitive advantage is shifting, spurred by
regulatory, competitive and economic changes. We think
the market underestimates the ramifications of four key
changes that will drive market share shifts and rationalisation.
1. A step change in unsecured funding costs makes it
harder for banks to hold some assets on balance
sheet, which are then more likely to shift to investors.
This is likely to reshape financial intermediation over the next five years
and lead to more business shifting to the bond markets
and to loan investors, particularly in Europe.
2. Financial protectionism and changes in regulators’
desire for capital and funding in subsidiaries will drive
a de-globalisation of markets. Recent initiatives by
regulators to trap even more liquidity and capital locally are
gathering pace, and need to be factored into banks’
models. Some global banks, chiefly the Europeans, will
exit geographies where they can’t compete, giving
advantage to scaled regionals and some US firms. Home
market advantages will be reinforced, pushing medium
sized and smaller banks to focus domestically. The
profitability of the US markets and the continued
importance of US dollars as the functional global currency
of trade will also furnish US firms with a strong advantage.
3. A greater proportion of economic profit will come
from the infrastructure supporting clearing, collateral
management and service delivery. The use of collateral
and the regulatory shift to centralized clearing is
accentuated by sovereign stress and the need to mitigate
risk assets. Banks will be competing with other
infrastructure providers to win these earnings streams.
Paralleling this, banks are seeking to “lock in” corporate
and retail client business by delivering more integrated
4. Distribution and operational scale will become more
important than financial leverage and trading
prowess.Scale, technology and breadth
of distribution to drive market share and efficiency will be
ever more important.
And what does this mean for the banks, the industry
structure, and winners and losers?
We think wholesale banks have the potential to earn
12-14% ROE in the next 2 years, but there will be more
distance between the winners – who could return even
more – and the losers. Banks made just 8% RoE in their
wholesale banks in 2011 and the market is assuming most will
struggle to make their cost of capital in the next 2 years. This is
in part due to further regulatory-driven drags on returns from
higher required capital ratios and other changes.
En lien, la référence du Rapport OW -MS: