jeudi 29 juillet 2010

Leveraging - deleveraging et le vieillissement de la population

Dans son dernier éditorial (en lien), Bill Gross, le Directeur Général de Pimco, le plus grand gestionnaire de fonds obligataires du Monde, met l'accent sur le facteur démographique dans la montée de l'endettement et les difficultés du désendettement dans le nouveau contexte économique du "new normal".

Voici quelques extraits de l'analyse:

"Lacking an accelerating population base, all developed countries promoted the financing of more and more consumption per capita in order to maintain existing GDP growth rates. Finally, in the U.S., with consumption at 70% of GDP and a household sector deeply in debt, there was nowhere to go but down. Similar conditions exist in most developed economies.The danger today, as opposed to prior deleveraging cycles, is that the deleveraging is being attempted into the headwinds of a structural demographic downwave as opposed to a decade of substantial population growth. "Today’s developed economies almost assuredly offer substantially less population growth than the 1.5% rate experienced over the prior 50 years. Even when viewed from a total global economy perspective, population growth over the next 10–20 years will barely exceed 1%."These aging trends present a one-two negative punch to our New Normal thesis over the next 5–10 years: fewer new consumers in terms of total population, and a growing number of older ones who don’t spend as much money. The combined effect will slow economic growth more than otherwise.PIMCO’s continuing New Normal thesis of deleveraging, reregulation and deglobalization produces structural headwinds that lead to lower economic growth as well as half-sized asset returns when compared to historical averages. The New Normal will not be aided nor abetted by a slower-growing population nor by cyclical policy errors that thrust Keynesian consumption remedies on a declining consumer base. "

William H. Gross - PIMCO
Managing Director

En lien l'éditorial de Bill Gross dans le bulletin de Pimco

1 commentaire:

  1. Selon le WSJ début aout : Bill Gross (PIMCO) et d'autres investisseurs (cf ci-après) s'inquiètent de la déflation et se positionnent davantage en bons du trésor US.

    " Big Investors Fear Deflation
    Bill Gross Among Those Bracing for Possible Decline in Prices: 'It's Happening'

    Some of the world's leading investors are becoming more worried about deflation and are re-shaping their portfolios to prepare for a possible period of falling prices.

    Bond-fund heavyweight Bill Gross, investment manager Jeremy Grantham and hedge-fund managers David Tepper and Alan Fournier are among the best-known investors who are bracing for a possible bout of deflation, a development that could cripple global economies and world stock markets. "

    Voir article du WSJ :