David Rosenberg contre le consensus pour 2010

David Rosenberg, que ce blog a souvent cité, est contrarian.Dans sa dernière chronique il énumère ce qui constitue le consensus actuel pour 2010 et qu'il ne partage pas.

Voici la description qu'il en fait:
"Muted recovery, but positive growth, for sure!
No risk of a ‘double dip’.
Equity markets up!
A barbell strategy of domestic multinational blue chips and emerging market equities.
The U.S. dollar is…neutral, but we did locate more bulls than bears (so much for the ‘carry trade’ thesis).
Positive on commodities for the most part.
Concerned about government balance sheets, and therefore… …Bearish on long term government bonds because they are the ‘competition’ and, after all, who would tie their money up for 10 years at 3.5% when you can lose 22% in stocks? And, therefore…
…Bullish on spread product (as long as it’s not long-term). And, therefore…
…Really comfortable with high yield (just for the coupon and the view that default rates will come down).
Certain that volatility will not be an impediment. The Fed will begin to raise rates in the second half of the year, but that this will have no impact since they will still be low."


David Rosenberg conclut en énonçant la règle n°8 de Bob Farrel:

“When all forecasts and experts agree, something else is going to happen.”