David Rosenberg ne partage pas la douce euphorie ambiante

David Rosenberg, auquel nous nous référons régulièrement, l'ancien chief Economist très respecté de Merrill Lynch, demeure indéfectiblement "bear".

Ecoutons le:

"The Fed supposedly has better information than everyone else. In his JEC testimony yesterday, the Fed Chairman could not have possibly been more cautious.

There is not question that the perception that we are into a strong and sustainableeconomic expansion is proving difficult to break.The equity market is seriously overbought,overextended and overpriced.

"...a recovery in economic activity appears to have begun". Appears?

"With inventories now much better aligned with final sales, however, and with the support from fiscal policy set to diminish in the coming year, further economic expansion will depend on continued growth in private final demand".


Bernanke went on to emphasize, not the upside risks (are there any?) but the "significant restraints on the pace of recovery".

The pronounced weakness in construction spending, the steep fiscal cutbacks at the state and local government level, and the lingering large resource gap in the labour market ("particularly concerned" about the "44 percent of the unemployed had been
without a job for six months or more).

And what about the Fed beige book that came out yesterday?

The widespread consensus is that it was more optimistic than the prior one. And it was, but hardly by much. Mirroring the tone by Chairman Bernanke, "economic activity increased somewhat.

Bernanke emphasized, not the upside risks (are there any?) but the "significant restraints on the pace of recovery "

Voir en lien aussi les citations extraites par Business Insider:
http//www.businessinsider.com/rosenberg-the-problem-is-commodity-prices-are-surging-but-end-prices-are-sinking-so-margins-are-getting-squeezed-2010-4

De son coté, Janet Yellen, la future n°2 du FED, vient d'exprimer une vision assez positive sur la reprise américaine que l'on trouvera en lien dans Marketwatch:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-yellen-more-positive-on-economic-rebound-2010-04-15

The jury is still out!