samedi 17 avril 2010

David Rosenberg (suite) : la principale menace, déflationiste

David Rosenberg (voir post ci-dessous) demeure tout à fait "Bear"on l'a dit. La principale menace -et l'évolution la plus probable- pour lui est une évolution déflationniste.
Voici en conséquence la stratégie d'investissement qu'il recommande à ses clients américains:
"• Focus on safe yield: High-quality corporates (non- cyclical, high cash reserves, minimal refinancing needs). Corporate balance sheets are in very good shape.
• Equities: focus on reliable dividend growth/yield; preferred shares (“income” orientation). Starbucks just caught on to the importance of paying out a dividend.
• Whether it be credit or equities, focus on companies with low debt/equity ratios and high liquid asset ratios – balance sheet quality is even more important than usual. Avoid highly
leveraged companies.
• Even hard assets that provide an income stream work well in a deflationary environment (ie, oil and gas royalties, REITs, etc…).
• Focus on sectors or companies with these micro characteristics: low fixed costs, high variable cost, high barriers to entry/some sort of oligopolistic features, a relatively high level of demand inelasticity (utilities, staples, health care — these sectors are also unloved and under-owned by institutional portfolio managers)."

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