samedi 24 avril 2010

David Rosenberg une fois de plus met en garde contre l'euphorie ambiante

Voici un extrait "contrarian" d'une de ses dernières chroniques:

The Shiller P/E ratio is currently more than 30% above historical norms, and the fact that interest rates are low does not account for much of that excessive valuation. The S&P 500 is basically priced for a return-to-peak earnings by next year … the widespread view of a sustained V-shaped recovery in corporate profits will be put to the test.

Investor sentiment is wildly bullish. The just-released Investors Intelligence survey is now up to 53.3% for the bulls (versus 51.1% last week) while the bear camp has dwindled further, to 17.4% (versus 18.9% a week ago). Bullish sentiment rose for the third consecutive week and bearish sentiment has not been this low since January 12. As Bob Farrell’s Rule number 9 stipulates, when all the forecasts and experts agree, something else is bound to happen.

As for the U.S. economy, we hear over and over again how the consumer is proving to be the upside surprise for the first quarter. However, this is happening at a time when organic wage and salary income is still on a downward path. The consumer is fuelling the spending pickup via a renewed decline in the savings rate, to near-depleted levels of 3%, which is what we would dub a “low quality” recovery. Tax refunds are up double digits from a year ago, which is a non-recurring source of support as well.”

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